Bitcoin defies all expectations.
A new paradigm is required, which says this: Expect your predictions to happen sooner than you think.
So I said that Bitcoin would reach the value of $7000 by the end of November. It’s taken me totally by surprise that the value I predicted has been reached by the 2nd of November! And I am far from naïve when it comes to Bitcoin, so to newbies, it must be mystifying.
Now I’m thinking it’ll reach $8000 by the end of November. But since that’s what I’m thinking, I’ve got to admit that I’ll be wrong, and second guess myself with the new paradigm… It’ll happen sooner than I think. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. There is no wrong time to acquire Bitcoin. Well, waiting is wrong in my opinion. Waiting for the price to drop just means that you have to watch prices all the time, and anyway, it’ll bounce higher than the highest price you’ve seen so far. So what’s to lose? A $1000 is nothing in the scheme of things with Bitcoin.
Anyway, back to the point. Now I think that it’ll reach that value—taking the new paradigm into account, of $8000 by the middle of the month.
Second Guessing the New Paradigm.
Wait a minute! If that’s what I now think, I am probably wrong! Is it possible to second guess myself regarding value predictions, and still the new paradigm takes my second guess into account and beats me to the punch?
My head hurts!
I really have no clue as to what is going to happen. I can say this though, hoping that Sod’s Law does not prove me wrong: Bitcoin always bounces back to a greater new high whenever the value drops. So if it gets to $8000 before the SEGwit2 fork, and the value drops just before the fork, it’ll bounce back again to higher than before the fork. Could it reach $10,000 by the end of November? I thought that wouldn’t happen until the end of December.
Big-money Bitcoin Investors.
And upwards it marches. But here’s the big thing: is the prediction of most savvy big-money investors like Van-Petersen that Bitcoin will reach a value of between $500,000 and $1m within 5 to 10 years still subject to the new value paradigm. If so, perhaps that idea of the longer-term value needs to have a few years shaved off… A bit like me, really.
Disclaimer: I’m not a financial adviser. My words are my ideas, and I could be wrong. Never take my advice, because it’s not advice! Don’t invest what you cannot afford to lose. Not even in what you surmise is an absolute certainty. If I can’t predict what’s going to happen, neither can you, your financial adviser, your bank manager, or your stockbroker, so anything you invest you should consider a bet on a ten horse race, with all horses having an equal chance of winning, or losing. Don’t gamble because gamblers are often idiots. And gambling can ruin your life!
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