Bitcoin Price Prediction.
Where did I go wrong with my last Bitcoin Price Forecast a month ago, on November 18th 2017?
I was wrong, wrong, wrong, and far too slow!
It’s not that I predicted the wrong value for Bitcoin—I got that correct. It was the time-frame that got me. By following the exponential curve of Bitcoin, I underestimated the speed at which the price would advance. Now that I’ve worked out why, read on for an explanation…
How to Calculate Bitcoin Price in Advance
So what’s the solution to making an accurate prediction of Bitcoin price/value over any period of time? There is a solution that seems to be viable, and not over-complicated.
You have undoubtedly noticed that Bitcoin growth is accelerating, right? In Ray Kurzwell’s “The Law of Accelerating Returns”, he notes that, ‘There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth…’
That seems to be what those trying to predict Bitcoin prices have not understood. When you do take exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth into account, you find a curious thing… that Bitcoin growth is more like the acceleration due to gravity, but in reverse. Whereas gravity pulls things down, the same law of acceleration is pushing Bitcoin up.
How it Works.
Why would that be? What possible mechanism could be behind Bitcoin value accelerating at the same speed a dropped object accelerates due to gravity?
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Our entire universe is no more than information in patterns and algorithmic equations. And that same information is used repeatedly in an infinity of different ways.
For example, if you look at the correlation between Fibonacci numbers and the Stock market, you’ll find strange correlations in place. Patterns tend to repeat in particular sequences that can’t be precisely predicted, but can be roughly predicted by people with good pattern recognition skills and an awareness of current situations and future trends.
There’s another analogy right in the middle here. Gravity pulls objects together. The larger the object, the more likely they are to be trapped by each other’s gravitational pull. So Jupiter attracts large comets and meteors saving Earth countless times from collision. The Sun attracts the planets, which is why we have a solar system. And Bitcoin attracts large investors. The bigger they are, the more likely they are to be attracted to Bitcoin, especially as Bitcoin value grows.
Are you good at pattern recognition? Bitcoin growth does seem to be accelerating with gravitational exponentially.
Let me explain: on our planet, near the surface, things fall at an acceleration of approximately 9.8m per second every second which is to say that the more time that passes, the faster it travels. Just like Bitcoin!
In the 1st second, a falling object will travel 9.8m. In the 2nd second it’ll fall 19.6m, and in the 3rd second it’ll fall 29.4m. In the 4th second it’ll fall 39.2m, then it will hit 49m. Can you see where I’m going with this? In the analogy, Bitcoin value rises at the rate of gravitational acceleration points, but in reverse, because as fast as a dropped object reaches another point of acceleration, Bitcoin value rises.
Assume seconds means dollars, and multiply them by 1000.
We’ll start at the point where Bitcoin value reached $9,800, because that is when the acceleration of gravity really begins to show. We can say that at that point, Bitcoin became heavier, and in the absence of a vacuum, heavier objects can fall faster. From Newton we know that gravitational attraction is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between objects attracted to each other.
Proportionality of Bitcoin Growth Speed.
For Bitcoin, we reverse this and say that velocity of growth is proportional to the square of the difference in its last two highs in value, given that we are referring to substantial jumps in value rather than fluctuations around a high point or a point of resistance.
From gravity, Bitcoin’s next jump is to $19,600. That’s where we are just now, (or just were) but we have not taken wind resistance into account. And wind resistance is an appropriate analogy for the wind that comes out of the mouth of Central Bankers and their affiliates, banks, stockbrokers, and mainstream financial press, with a vested interest in keeping people in traditional stocks, bonds, and banks, rather than moving their assets to a blockchain that is not controlled by them.
So currently there’s a bit of wind resistance, and value has dipped by around 20%. But the Theory of Bitcoin Gravitational Acceleration says that Bitcoin will continue on its trajectory and for the purposes of long-term value, wind resistance should be more-or-less ignored.
On Bitcoin’s next major surge in value, its 3rd when you are talking about higher values, it should reach $25,000, before it encounters some more wind resistance. After that, because of the exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth Bitcoin is likely to make what some people would see as a huge jump, in its 4th major leap in value to $36,000.
This’ll take the unprepared by surprise, but so will it’s acceleration in price as it’s 5th jump in value takes it to $49,000, then $64,000, $81,000, and on its eight jump it reaches $100000.
So every jump in value is bigger than the previous jump in value in the Theory of Bitcoin Gravitational Acceleration. And it happens faster than the last one. The speed at which Bitcoin growth occurs increases in proportion to the value of it’s last major price increase.
But you are Looking for Defined Rules, Right?
Bear in mind that nothing is fixed in stone, and I’m using approximated values, because, let’s face it, approximate is as close as anyone can get.
These be the rules: if Bitcoin value grows by X% the time-lapse before it’s next jump in value will be X% less than the time-lapse before its last jump in value. Let’s round the growth in value from $49,000 to $64,000 down from 21% to 20% for neatness. This means if it took 28 days to jump from $49,000 to $64,000, the next jump to $81,000 will take between 5 and six days less (20% less). So it’ll then take 22 to 23 days to make that next jump to $100,000.
Here is where we see things really taking off. The next jump is to $121,000 and that jump should take place approximately 19 days later (20% less than 23 days).
Thus we are taking into account Kurzwell’s Law of Accelerating Returns, and Newton’s Theory of Gravity.
So now you think I’ve forgotten about retracement, right? And some people seem to be moving Bitcoin into BCH. (A big mistake in my view, because BCH is going to tank when Bitcoin recovers.)
Well, I have put some thought into that, and if you were thinking that every retracement in value will be correspondingly bigger according to the value of Bitcoin at the time, you would be correct in that assumption, so long as resistance stays the same. But remember that the percentage retracement stays roughly the same no matter what value Bitcoin has at the time of retracement.
So when Bitcoin has a value of say $20,000, a 20% retracement takes us down to $16,000, before it leaps past that initial $20,000 to get to $25,000. So people see that as a growth of $7000, when in fact it’s only a growth of $5000 from its last high.
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If Bitcoin were at a value of $40,000, (and that is going to happen) a 20% retracement would take the value down to $32,000.
So that seems a lot, a sudden drop in value like that, but it’s the usual 20%, and Bitcoin always recovers to a higher value than before the pull-back, ready for its next jump in value, and from here it looks like retracements are going to gradually reduce from 20% before recovery. Because the higher value Bitcoin has, the greater confidence people have in it as a store of increasing value.
Do Forget This Thing…
Would you like to know what you must forget? The answer to that one is simple: everything negative you’ve heard or will hear about Bitcoin. Hold on. Hold on through the hard forks. Hold on through disinformation. Hold on through sudden drops in Bitcoin price greater than expected. Hold on, because Bitcoin Always Wins! If you do not do that, you do yourself a long-term disfavour.
Bitcoin may never reach terminal velocity, because it may reach a point of zero resistance. Where that point comes into play could determine the speed at which Bitcoin value accelerates from there. It seems fairly clear to me that there will come a time when nobody will be able to make a valid claim that Bitcoin is not an asset of accumulating value. At that point, it will accelerate its growth rate even faster.
The Theory of Bitcoin Gravitational Acceleration.
If the Theory of Bitcoin Gravitational Acceleration is correct, (and it can only be roughly correct), resistance will lower as Bitcoin grows, in reverse of the gravitational principle here on our planet where falling objects experience greater air resistance as they fall until they reach terminal velocity and cannot go any faster. But Bitcoin is not falling, and the higher you go, the less the air resistance.
Typically, retracements happen more slowly than recoveries, and that can be frustrating, when you are a holder, but when recovery starts the value shoots up within a few days. Sometimes in two days. Because for some reason Bitcoin accelerates faster than it decelerates. Nobody can argue with that, looking at what has been happening since Bitcoin really took off.
Jumps in Bitcoin Value From this Theory.
Then you are looking at the next jump in value, and this is how it goes—think in USD thousands: 1, 4, 9, $16k, [we are currently here] 25, 36, 49, 64, 81, $100k, 121, 144, 169, 196, 225, 256, 289, 324, 361, $400k and onwards and upwards…
That $100k is 6 jumps from now. And each jump will take less time than the previous one. From around that point, it’s going to be making its jumps in value in a matter of days, according to the Theory of Bitcoin Gravitational Acceleration.
Disclaimer: Got to say this… This article, like my others, is not financial advice, because I don’t give that. I give my thoughts and ideas and it is up to each individual to do due diligence before making any investment. Even after due diligence, most people would advise you not to risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Because if you lose everything, you no longer have that, and then what do you do?
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If you think I’ve made a major logical mistake in this article, because it’s a long time since I took Applied Physics, please comment below. Or just say you enjoyed reading it. Your details are kept private.
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