Bitcoin Growth Extrapolation – Probable to Worst Case Scenario.
I’ve done a simple extrapolation procedure, following the current growth curve, the moderate curve growth, and what I see as the worst case scenario following the curve using the lowest value reached during the Bitcoin dips that have occurred. Even in the worst case scenario, the chart strongly indicates that Bitcoin will achieve $20,00 by July ’18.
Bad News about Bitcoin Value Taken on Board
This takes into account the cases of bad news, forks that will occur, and central bank opposition, as well as instability caused by investor fear and ‘Whale’ manipulation of the Bitcoin market, because the curve that the extrapolation is based upon has already seen this happen.
So there is almost absolute certainty they’ll keep happening, and Bitcoin will continue somewhere along the lines of the growth I’ve projected. Because Bitcoin always jumps higher after a dip in value. On the University of Oregon website, http://zebu.uoregon.edu/1998/es202/l5.html there is an interesting quote: ‘…failure to assume exponential growth will always lead to a disaster so always assume exponential growth when planning anything!’
This is the current exponential curve courtesy of Bitcoin.com, (that link leads to their games section), which is interesting… and following this current chart below, you will see my projected extrapolation.
My Projection below follows the rules of normal extrapolation. These same extrapolation rules are used in everything from financial planning and company growth, to heat exchange during chemical reactions, and materials failure during stress. It rarely fails to come up with a very close to correct answer. If it did, planes would be falling out of the sky, Stockbrokers would be going out of business, and chemical labs would be blowing up all over the world.
Another important rule that rarely proves wrong is that trends tend to persist.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think so!
(EDIT 23/12/17 – Yes, I was off, it happened much sooner than I predicted!)
Of course, like any projection, this could be off, but there would have to be at least one currently unpredictable and completely fundamental change to throw the projection far off, and bear in mind that a wrong projection can be wrong either way. Bitcoin growth could be slower than predicted, or faster. So far this year, it has defied all expectations and grown faster than most sensible predictions indicated, because some new chemicals have been thrown into the reaction beaker, and when that happens there’s a bit of an unknown outcome. But the unknown outcomes have created a known pattern.
Are you looking forward to next year doubling your Bitcoin value before summer? I am!
Disclaimer: Please note that this article is not advice to invest in anything. It’s just what I think is the most likely scenario. I do not give financial advice, except the common-sense one that you should never invest what you cannot afford to completely lose. And if you do invest in a cryptocurrency, keep your coins safe in a hardware wallet like the Trezor.
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